Analyst says $20-$22 per share bid would be sufficient; Says interest might spark rival bid from EA
One US analyst has predicted that publisher Take-Two would accept a takeover bid of around $20-$22 per share from rival company Activision.
MCV exclusively revealed last Friday that there's increasing noise about a possible move amongst some of the industry's highest level execs.
And now speaking on Twitter, US analyst service First Adopter reckons that the cancellation of the Guitar Hero IP means Activision must look to increase its stable of successful IP.
"The market caps Activision at $13bn, EA at $6.1bn and Take-Two at $1.3bn. More consolidation is a no brainer in my opinion, especially after Activision shut down Guitar Hero, True Crime, Tony Hawk," it explained.
"If you're Bobby Kotick with a $13bn market cap, buying Take Two for $1.5-2bn is a no brainer, especially since you have nothing now outside of Call of Duty and Blizzard. With Take-Two Kotick picks up IPs like Grand Theft Auto, Bioshock, Red Dead and the NBA 2K series for tiny fraction of his market cap.
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"If I was CEO, I would do it."
Take-Two famously rejected a $26 per share bid from EA back in 2008, but in this new financially less certain world that situation could well of changed – particularly with key shareholders like Carl Icahn believed to be pushing for a buyout.
First Adopter thinks the company would now accept a lower offer some two years later.
"I think Take-Two management would take a $20-22 bid because they looked like fools for saying no to EA's $25 bid last time," the service added. "It's not often you get another chance.
"Activision said on a conference call they shutting down True Crime because it wouldn't be near the top in the 'open world' genre. Maybe that was a hint."
Furthermore, First Adopter believes that any move for Take-Two from Activision could be the catalyst for a rival bid from EA.
"Kicker is you might get EA to bid too because EA would be worried about stronger resourced sports competitor from an Activision/Take-Two combo."